Team | Implied Point Total | Opponent | Week 1 Result (OveUnder) |
---|---|---|---|
Ravens | 29 | Texans | OVER |
Cowboys | 28.5 | Falcons | UNDER |
Buccaneers | 28.25 | Panthers | OVER |
Chiefs | 28.25 | Chargers | N/A |
Packers | 28 | Lions | OVER |
Saints | 27.5 | Raiders | OVER |
Cardinals | 27.25 | WFT | OVER |
Colts | 25.75 | Vikings | UNDER |
Titans | 25.75 | Jaguars | UNDER |
Browns | 24.75 | Bengals | UNDER |
Steelers | 24.5 | Broncos | EVEN |
49ers | 24.5 | Jets | UNDER |
Seahawks | 24.5 | Patriots | OVER |
Falcons | 24 | Cowboys | OVER |
Bears | 23.75 | Giants | OVER |
Bills | 23.5 | Dolphins | OVER |
Rams | 23.25 | Eagles | UNDER |
Vikings | 22.75 | Colts | OVER |
Eagles | 22.25 | Rams | UNDER |
Texans | 22 | Ravens | N/A |
Raiders | 22 | Saints | OVER |
Lions | 21.5 | Packers | OVER |
Patriots | 20.5 | Seahawks | UNDER |
WFT | 20.25 | Cardinals | OVER |
Panthers | 19.25 | Buccaneers | OVER |
Chargers | 19.25 | Chiefs | UNDER |
Bengals | 18.75 | Browns | UNDER |
Giants | 18.25 | Bears | UNDER |
Dolphins | 17.5 | Bills | UNDER |
Jets | 17.5 | 49ers | OVER |
Broncos | 17 | Steelers | UNDER |
Jaguars | 16.75 | Titans | OVER |
3/04 - Free Betting Predictions, Tips, Advice and Trends! MLB Spring Training Free Play Today! submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments] Daily Free MAC ATTACK Plays Below!Website: RedAlertWagers.comContact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) Become a Member - Join The Patreon - $25 Text THE RED LINE For Tonight's Free MAC ATTACK PLAYS! Phone: THE RED LINE - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613) Follow The MAC on Social Media: Twitter.com/RedAlertWagers Facebook.com/RedAlertWagers Instagram.com/RedAlertWagers Reddit.com/useTheMACSPicks MAC Media: The Reddit Sports Report The Red Alert Report The NBABets Sub-Reddit The MAC'S Instant Access Red Pass: 1 Day Only Access RED PASS: $14.99 - Pay By Phone: Call The Red Line & Follow Automated Instructions (Payments Processed via © Stripe) (MAR 04) MAC DID THE CRUSHING LAST NIGHT - TONIGHT MAC HAS 1 SPECIAL RELEASE PLAY + 3 RED ALERT PLAYS, ACTION STARTS @ 7:00!Red Alert Patreon Members now get The MAC'S personal wagers as a units per play system, betting the strongest information and games with odds that have very best optimal value/risk reward. The Mac will once again prove why they continuously acclaim him to be a National Treasure as he will cracking them open and cleaning them out with 3 Red Alerts Picks Tonight! Roland is anticipating a huge CBB day, and Red Alerts Picks are cash in the bank making interest!Premium Play & Top Rated Release earnings are up substantially, College Hoops Plays are more than impressive this year, and tonight's CBB Action is set to go our direction. The MAC has a full card today and he is getting the all the geetus with conviction, he did his homework and is keeping open lines of discourse between his consensus groups and other affiliated player syndicates across the country. There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! (MAR 04) MAC GOT HIS LAST NIGHT - CBB HUSH MONEY ACTION NOW 39-15 FOR THE SEASON - MAC will be getting it done the way it's supposed to be done with 1 Exclusive release game on tap tonight - NCAAB Hush Money Play - 7:00 Massachusetts +1 vs La Salle -1, will be another classic example of why they dub Roland MAC McGuillaman the most venerable betting source on the internet. The MAC has been picking off games all season and March Madness is his specialty, ripping down office pools and NCAAB March Madness Contests is just what the MAC does. LAST NIGHT RECAP - 9:00 - NCAAB Hush Money Pick - Appalachian State -2 vs UL - Monroe +2 (The Mac had a Sun Belt Hush Money play on Appalachian State -2 last night! The Appalachian State Mountaineers got it done with a final of 61-57. These are the quiet games that we have been nailing all season, games that are out of the public betting eye are the easy plays that make MAC's Hush Money Predictions platinum rated across the country. ) - \*WINNER*\** The stock market is crashing and MAC's answering back with the very best college basketball sports investments available - MAC has the play at Patreon and on the Red Pass tonight - $25.00 Gets all MAC's Top Rated & Special Release Picks for 1 Month - $25.00 1 Month of all exclusive info CBB picks! Roland's been playing and fading these teams for years, knowing when to lay or take points with teams like the Seawolves, Gaels, River Hawks, & Governors has aggrandized THE MAC's reputation for his college hoops Hush Money Plays. This will be another game out of the public eye that will produce the quiet profits we expect. We pride our action by bringing the results that keep the people recommending THE MAC'S ATS COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS, making him one of the most venerable sources for expert college basketball predictions against the spread, and lionizing RedAlertWagers.com in and around sportsbooks and casinos! Tonight our Top Rated Exclusive Play Members will be getting in on MAC'S NCAAB MAJOR MOVE PLAY on the 8:00 - NCAAB Hush Money Play - Massachusetts +1 vs La Salle -1, plus all of tonight's Red Alert College Basketball & NBA Predictions. THE MAC HAS NBA GAME RED ALERT PLAY -7:00 - Clemson +1.5 vs Virginia Tech -1.5 a highly anticipated CBB Game - A Big 5 UNIT play that holds the value we strive for when researching odds, trends and stats - MAC has been hitting the CBB Action hard and averaging around 72% this year for our CBB betting members.
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submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/1imkfytohl741.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=73a56f8541e6e02bff2e3ede1d3da126c3c24693 Sunday Recap Singles: 10-10 (-3.63u) Parlay: 0-0 (0u): None BBDLS: 0-1 (-1.2u) SBBDLS: 0-1 (-0.5u) Teasers: 0-1 (-3u) Sunday Games Tennessee at Houston(+6): Huge first game to open up the card. TEN controls their playoff destiny. Win and they are in. Houston is already in but O'brien says he isn't resting players. I can't imagine he sticks to that plan. There is no reason for him to risk any injury to anyone important. I think Vegas is charging the public on the TEN spread. My algo has this game a PK with TEN -2.5 on a neutral field. With the return of Derrick Henry and Tennessee's top red-zone offense combined with 0 reasons for the Texan's to play a full game, this one is an easy ml parlay candidate. There aren't many props I will be looking at on this final weekend, but Henry is one of them. A week of rest and a win and in scenario for the player that the offense runs through? Sign me up. Extra note: The KC/LAC game is at 1pm. The only chance HOU has to move up is for KC to lose in the 1pm game, then HOU would be majorly incentivised to win this game. May put a BBDLS in that has this combination. Which btw, if you believe the game is rigged to get the Patriots to another superbowl, having KC and HOU swap seeding and make KC and BAL eliminate one of each other seems like the easiest road for New England... Cleveland at Cincinnati(+3): Annnnd here we have the first coin flip of the day. Half a season ago this would have been an easy Browns pick. Now who knows who is going to get up for this game. Im sure everyone in Cleveland would like to end the season on a win. At least it will make a look back a the whole season a little less bitter for them. CIN has clinched a first round pick in the draft. Does this mean that Dalton and Co. are going to take his probably last opportunity as a Bengals starter to showcase their talents for next year's money? Both teams will most likely rely heavily on their running games so I will be fading this one except to maybe take a Bengals ml in a BBDLS Chicago at Minnesota(+3): Another divisional match up here. This game opened at MIN -7 and because they cant move up or down from the 6 seed it looks like they will be resting most of their key players. CHI is only playing for pride and has only one win against a team with a winning record this year, luckily for them it was against this team, at full strength! Not knowing who is going to play for MIN will keep me from looking their way even with the points and HF. Indianapolis at Jacksonville(+4): Just like the CLE/CIN game this one is anyone's game. We have a few of these this week. Teams that are both out of the playoffs with no incentive to win other than pride and future contracts. Ill expect IND to try and replicate last weeks effort on the ground as JAX has a run defense with season stats almost identical to CAR. JAX is hit or miss so in the final (home) game of the season, catching points...Ill have to ride dog or fade. Atlanta at Tampa Bay(-2): Another game with two teams who have zero post season opportunity. Both have been playing above their records over the month of December with ATL coming into this having won their last 3 games. TB has been crap at home this year so far going 2-5. Can they pick up this last game and finish the season .500? My algo is saying no. Currently it is siding with the surge of defense being played by the Falcons in the second half of the season and with less reliable targets for Winston to throw to and a fantastic match up for Julio, Im gonna have to side with the road team here. Washington at Dallas(-11): Boy did the Cowboys really suck last week. They couldn't put up 10 points on an Eagle's secondary that has been getting burned all year. An Eagle's secondary that just gave up like 35 points to the Case Keenum lead Redskins... I mean one would think that Dallas, playing for a miracle to get in the playoffs, would give this game everything and dominate from start to finish. But, why woulnt they just do that last week? Plus, Keenum didn't look that bad (although it was against the Giants secondary). Eleven is a lot of points for a 45 total. That would mean Dallas would have to put up 27 -31 points and keep WAS at 13-17. Doable but not profitable at a -110 bet. Will probably save Dallas for a ML parlay or WAS and the points for a BBDLS. Won't be looking props except Zeke who will be facing a Skins D that gave up almost 200 last week to Saquan alone... Extra trends: The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six against teams with a losing record and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 against NFC East teams. Washington is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. New Orleans at Carolina(-13): Well, Will Greer didnt spark the fire in the dying CAR team. CAR has lost their last 7 games and has given up an average 32 ppg over those games. The Rivera defense is over. The Saints on the other hand are operating on the opposite end of the spectrum. Brees had that stumble against ATL but other than that he has looked great as the Saints offense has put 34 or more points in 5 of their last 6. Two TDs is a lot, but if there are a few teams that could do it more often than 53% in this spot, NO is one of them. Philadelphia at NY Giants(+4): A meaningful match up for two teams, but only one of them is playing this game. Philly controls their playoff destiny, as they seemed to have for the last few weeks. A win here with crown them NFC East champs and send them to the playoffs. A loss + a DAL win would end Philly's season and send the Cowboys to the post season. My algo is all over this one for a high scoring game. Both secondary's suck. Greg Ward has quietly become a go to guy for Wentz, posting 15 receptions for 166 yards and 1 touchdown on 23 targets over his last 3 games. Jones seems to favor Tate in terms of targets, but Shepherd has the softest match up going against Jalen Mills. Pittsburgh at Baltimore(+2): Baltimore is in the playoffs and has the guaranteed one seed in the AFC. PIT is seeing their playoff chances slip away. With their loss last week to the Jets, they now need to win this game AND a loss from the Titans. The good news for them is that BAL has their spot locked up and looks to rest a TON of key players. Even so the backup, RG3, isn't the worst guy to step in. He is basically the B team version of Jackson. Well, maybe the C team, haha but even a C team running QB seems more dangerous than whoever PIT has been putting on the field at QB this season. This game's total has been dropping as the week goes on so there is a good chance I just skip it all together as low totals aren't usually good games to target props. Also, there is some serious RLM. Almost 60% of bets are on BAL but the line has gone from BAL -3 to BAL +2... NY Jets at Buffalo(-1): Interesting game here. NY played spoiler last week handing the Steelers and upset and severely hurting their playoff chances. Buffalo is riding high with a guaranteed post season appearance this year, their first in a while. There are already rumors that the Bills won't play starters the whole game, and why would they? They are locked into the 5 spot in the AFC, no reason to risk injury to anyone. With another low projected total, I will probably ride dog or avoid this game all together. Miami at New England (-16.5): Two very important factors in this game. One, its the Dolphins defense. Two, its the Patriots at home. End Analysis. . . Just kidding! That should be all we need to know, but just for the sake of depth, I will add a little more, haha. NE is playing for the number 2 seed in the playoffs and HFA in their first game. MIA with a loss and a NYG win would move up in the draft order. There is also some suprising RLM in this one. Almost 60% of the bets are on MIA +14.5 open, but the line is climbing to now 16.5. This feels like a classic Patriots 31-13 game with 2 or 3 picks, maybe a defensive score, and use of alllll the running backs. I struggle when taking Patriot props as they are so hard to predict who will get the usage on any given day. If you have a site that offers odds on a defensive score, I would take +odds in this context. Green Bay at Detroit(+12): Well this is another playoff bound favorite vs. a team in rebuild looking at 2020. DET did get back Kerryon Johnson at RB. The dual threat of Johnson and Scarborough helped take some load off Blough and DET actually held the lead in the DEN game late. Unfortunately DET defense is still one of the worst and a quick 14 points from DEN took this game away. The first time these two played it was close in GB with DET leading the whole game...however, that game feels like a different season with the different paths these two teams have taken since that game. I expect GB to play starters the whole game and lock up a chance at higher seeding and possibly HFA. LA Chargers at Kansas City(-9): Does KC want to play Baltimore first, or NE first? Essentially if they win this game they get NE and if they lose (and the Texans win) they would get BAL. I would assume they are not happy to play either but alas, the road to the SB leads through both for KC. This year, 11 out of 15 of the LAC games have been won or lost by 7 points or less. Unfortunately for LA, they are 2-9 in those games. This is actually a tough spread to cap. Anything over 7 feels so hard, I mean 11 out of 15... Ill probably be on KC ml in my parlays so I may throw a balance of LA in one. Arizona at LA Rams(-6): Man, I was all over the Rams last Saturday, and a win by them would have kept their playoff chances alive and netted us a huge win on our free roll for that game. Sadly, they couldnt stop two third and longs. Now I sit here wondering if they are even going to get up for this game. AZ has been an underdog most of the year and as a team has put in good effort in most if not all their games. Drake has been an absolute beast since his trade from MIA. Im honestly not sure why this line is what it is. Maybe I am missing something, but it looks like there is a TON of value on AZ. Maybe even ML value. Oakland at Denver(-3.5): So the Raiders still have a chance here. If both TEN and PIT lose and IND and OAK win...OAK is in. It's actually possible, especially if the Chargers an do something random against the Chiefs. For DEN, Lock coming in has been great for them. They are 3-1 since he was named starter and the only game they lost was against the Chiefs. A big key for me in this one is whether or not Josh Jacobs returns. If he does, OAK and the points looks juicy. If he does not, DEN seems primed to end the season on a Mile High Note. :P San Francisco at Seattle(+3.5): They say save the best for last. A fight for their division title, and a chance for either team to take the one seed in the NFC and SF to have HFA throughout the playoffs. The first meeting between these two went down to the wire with SEA taking it on the road. Even with the injuries and new RBs, there has to be value on SEA at home getting more than a field goal. Extra trends: The Seahawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog. San Francisco is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game Singles 133-138-3 (+15.17u)
I have a few more parlays and BBDLS that I put in but it's 11am and I am going to head to the Ocean Casino in AC to put in my last SBBDLS for the season. Will post in the comments when I get back if I find some prop lines before game time. Good luck to all! :D |
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/b7coyep2lfp31.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=13b079f1149378af1c3dd8df983e1ca8364cb296 Last Week:
Early Games (1pm) Carolina @ Houston (-4): Well, my recent fuck up is the best place to start. :D Carolina looked like a real football team last week. I don't know yet if it was the QB change, or the fact that they played in a dome against a bottom of the league team, but there will be no more sleeping on Kyle Allen. Let the data collection begin! So far all we have is the game last week, and his start in week 17 last year. With this he is 2-0 and has thrown 6 TDs 0 Ints. Looks pretty good, but we cant just mentally give him Cam's job until we see how he handles adversity in difficult match ups once other teams have more film on him. But, as long as he keeps up a solid game managing TD to INT ratio, his stout pass D and above average running game should give him many opportunities to win in his next few starts. Houston came through for us last week with a road dog money line upset of the Chargers. They had to grind it out with rivers going 5-15 on 3rd downs and throwing 46 times but both sides of the ball did their job. This should turn out to be a good defensive battle. I would look for a lot of Sacks in this game as both teams like to send pressure. As long as their aren't a ton of D/ST scores, this looks to play to the under. ***Interesting note: Panthers DE Bruce Irvin will make his season debut Sunday after missing the first three games with a hamstring injury**.** \*** Cleveland @ Baltimore(-7): Our first divisional match up of the day. Both are coming off losses. Cleveland on prime time to an undefeated Rams team and Baltimore to an undefeated Chiefs team. No real injuries to note. These teams seem to have opposite identities at the moment. Cleveland has a pretty decent D, even with some minor injuries, but their offense has struggled to find rhythm. Baltimore has a pretty legit offense, but their D isn't the same as we are used to. I mean, with a Baltimore D of old, this team taking early leads would be unstoppable. But they let Kyler Murray come in and stay within a TD. Personally, I hope Baltimore SMOKEs Cleveland. I want them to take a division lead, get the public against Cleveland. Then watch Cleveland go 1-2 in October with a Loss, Win, Loss. Then they will be 2-5 overall and hopefully we will get GREAT odds on them to win the division. Then they win out the year with a laughable schedule and go 11-5 and 5-1 in the division. That's the plan! :D Washington @ New York Giants (-3): Another divisional match up. This one with probably zero playoff implications. Barring Danny Dimes somehow being the next Mahommes and scoring 30 points a game, I cant see how this game matters to the league this year. Even IF double D scored 30 points a game, the Giants D is bad enough they still might lose those games. Washington is 0-3. They were just obliterated by the Bears on MNF last week. Keenum had like 12 INTs? This is going to be a battle of spirit IMO. The spirit of desperation by the Redskins vs. the new kid on the block in NY playing his first home game as a regular season starter. I like the way DD came out and handled the pressure. He even did it with Barkley going down (now out 4-6 weeks). But I dont like how bad the Giants secondary is. I think there is a better chance of Keenum making up for his performance last week by coming out strong against this Giants D, than there is of DD carrying the team to another win off pure Spirit. But spirit is a powerful thing! If there was no spread, i would have to side with the Giants...but give me 3 points in what I think is an evenly bad match up? It may swing me to the road dog. For now though, I dont see much edge on the spread and will probably just observe. HOWEVER! I did like how DD and Evan Ingram were in sync. Ingram is +200 to get a 100yd game and he is already 2 for 3 this year. Also, the over is getting bet hard so I look for opportunities for him. L.A. Chargers @ Miami(+14.5): Well, well, well. One of my favorite spots in the NFL. A West Coast team traveling to the far East Coast to play a 1pm game. The Chargers are coming off a tough home loss to the Texans last week. The algo predicted it, which was nice for us, but the chargers lead for a good while, so I am sure it was even more stingy of a loss. Now they travel all the way to Miami to play a team with probably the worst 3 game start in NFL history. However. TWO things for me in this game. One: Rozen isn't bad. He played well, but his receivers currently drop more balls than they catch. He gave them a chance to take the lead near the end of the 1st half vs. Dallas. They faded in the second half, but they came out strong. Two: If you followed me last year, you will know I love betting against the west coast team in the first quartehalf when they are traveling east for a 1pm game. Their brains think its 10am and they are just a step slower to start the game. On the chargers side of the ball, Melvin Gordon has ended his holdout. He won't play this game, but is expected to play week 5. Austin Eckler will probably be taking his last shot as a starter for a while. I expect him to run with purpose. He also has the opportunity to do it against a Miami D that, well, I don't think I need to say more. :P Oakland @ Indy(-7): Oakland opened the season strong with a win against Denver but has since suffered back to back crushing losses to playoff teams. Indy is 2-1 but could just as easily be 0-3. Brissett is managing and the Indy D is pretty legit. TY Hilton is doubtful for this game. Darren Waller is just 8 receptions away from beating Antonio Gates for the best 4 game start for a TE in NFL history. This feels like an Indy win, OAK cover type spot but I wouldn't sleep on OAK to get a potential upset. Kansas City @ Detroit(+6.5/7/7.5): Both teams are undefeated with DET blowing an easy game against Arizona to give up a tie. All three of the NJ sites i frequent have a different line. I am finding this game one of the more difficult to judge. My gut instinct says Patty cakes is out there baking cakes. But I can't understand why there is enough favor on the DET side to keep this game from moving up to -8. I mean, so far over 80% of the spread tickets are on KC. Usually that should call for some more balance. But there was a lot of trouble pushing it through the key number of 7 so that has me weary of the spread. My spot for a bet? Travis Kelce has games of 88, 107, and 89 yards recieving this year. His O/U is 82.5 in a game that has a very high points total. I feel like he is almost always good for a 20yrd reception so really I am looking at a number closer to 65. https://preview.redd.it/nox0a2m0lfp31.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a2ab47de3fc7a95a5fff6f6f18622ce1e9f1b517 New England @ Buffalo (+7): Dildo Time. Two 3-0 teams face for a KEY Divisional match up. It's safe to say there is a very strong chance both of these teams go 4-0 against the other 2 teams in the division. If Buffalo can steal away an early divisional game, they could really give themselves hope and excitement. Unfortunately for them they are facing the Patriots who's defense has yet to give up a TD against opposing offenses and a Patriots offense that is demolishing teams so far. I know the Bills are 3-0 and I normally loooove home dogs, but I just cant take the points here. To be honest, I can see another dildo game. HUGE expectations on the Bills, Brady comes in a wrecks them, dildos everywhere. Here's a tweet that has me thinking for dildos. https://twitter.com/ChrisBrownBills/status/1177315496183631873?s=20 Tennessee @ Atlanta (-3.5): The final game of the 1pm slate. The Titans are what they have been in previous years. Inconsistent. They opened the season with a fantastic road win against the hyped Browns. Then lost a close Divisional game to the Colts before following that up with another Divisional loss vs. the Mustache. Atlanta has followed the same pattern of inconsistency of wins by getting blown out in their opener and upsetting the Eagles in game 2 and throwing away an opportunity to beat the Colts in week 3 by giving up an early lead and throwing a Key pick that could have given them a shot at a win. There are two things in this game that will have me side with the road dog. One: The Falcons lost S Keanu Neal. Two: The Titans have had a few extra days to prepare since their last game was a Thursday game. Afternoon Games (4pm) Seattle @ Arizona (+5/5.5): Both spreads are available to me, so its just a matter of if I like SEA or AZ. Seattle is coming off a disappointing home loss to the Brees-less Saints and sits at 2-1. Arizona is 0-3. Russel Wilson played spectacularly, but the Saints D/ST won the game for them building an early lead. Seattle tried to battle back and put up a valiant effort but fell short on time. Arizona looked like they could compete in weeks 1 and 2, but in week 3 lost a home game to a win-less team with a backup QB. There are some for sure props to look at in this game IMO. Cardinals are horrible against TEs giving up 131 and TD, 112 and a TD, and 75 and 2TDs. TE Will Dissly receptions and yards have progressed as follows: 1rec-12yds-0tds, 5rec-50yds-2tds, 6rec-62yds-1td. I think he is becoming a key target for Rus this year. They have also been burned by Stafford for 22yds rushing and Jackson for 120 rushing. I like Russ to have many opportunities to get his. Tampa Bay @ LA Rams (-9): The Bucs are 1-2 coming off a disappointing last second missed 34 yard field goal to give DD his first win in his first start. The Rams are 3-0 coming off beating the Browns. I mean TB has a decent pass rush with Barrett, but their secondary is pretty bad, allowing the Giants to come back and win that game. I think this is a perfect opportunity for the Rams to get rolling on offense. I see them putting up base 27. So the question is, can the Bucs keep up to cover the spread and combined with that, can the Rams hold off garbage time points? Minnesota @ Chicago (-1.5): A HUGE divisional game with both teams needing the win having lost to Green Bay already. Minn is coming off a home game whooping of the Raiders while the Bears are coming off a road win whooping of the Redskins. Both teams have top ranked Ds and meh Os with the edge going to the Bears and the Vikings, respectively. I feel like this is going to be a heavy defensive game. Cook should finally be held under 100 yards rushing. Jacksonville @ Denver(-2.5/3): Jacksonville is coming off a win and some extra rest. Denver is still waiting for its first sack, and its first win. On the flip side, Jacksonville recorded NINE sacks last week. This game looks like it is shaping up to be just like the Jax/Hou game. Low scoring. This game might be a candidate to tease Jax up and the Under. As for props, DJ Chark has a TD in every game this season. If he gets one in Denver, he breaks the franchise record. Even thought its predicted a very low scoring game, I like that he is getting 2.6 to 1 to do so! Night Game(8:20pm) Dallas @ New Orleans(+2.5,3): This is one of the hardest games for me. The Cowboys are 3-0 and looking good. But they did it against mediocre competition. The saints are Brees-less but are coming off a great D/ST performance and a game managed win for Bridgewater. Though the Saints have complained about bad calls a decent amount and they are the Third most penalized team this year so far, they do have a favorable crew tonight. "The crew working Sunday's game is led by official Carl Cheffers. Cheffers has been a crew chief since 2008, and, according to Payton, has worked 13 Saints games since 2006. The Saints record over that time with this crew: 12-1. " My gut tells me, if Brees didn't get hurt and the Saints entered this game 3-0 with Brees, the spread would be somewhere between Saints -3 and Saints -6.5. Is Brees going down worth a 6-9 point shift? Probably not. Given Bridgewater has a decent record and he's not the only QB for the Saints. Honestly, how is the over getting so much action?! Both teams have legit Defenses. These two played last year with Brees and it was a heavy under hit. That game Kamara and Ingram got nowhere and Dak and Dallas could throw the ball but they had trouble converting in the Red Zone. If a similar game script happens I could see Dallas having the edge this time given they have an added red zone threat in Jason Witton, and the Saints are without Brees. If you're going to bet this game, definitely shop for your number! Singles: 8-7-1 [+1.55u]
Parlays: 0-0 [0u] \**I recently received a 10u free bet on Draftkings NJ. All of these parlays are free bets****
Teasers: 2-2 [-1u ]
Thanks for reading. Good Luck to everyone! :D |
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/v7euqcxrgt441.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9761857f64d85a70bb8e4212a7ddcb3ce56edc68 Monday Recap Singles: 0-1 (-2.9u) Not the best result here, haha. Alshon went down early and Tate got 6 targets but only converted one into a catch. Parlay: 0-1 (-2u) Little rough here. Had NYG ml and was cruising the whole game. Giants D no bueno BBDLS: 0-0 (0u) SBBDLS: 0-0 (0u) Teasers: 0-0 (0u) Sunday Games Tampa Bay at Detriot (+3.5/+6): This one is all over the place. I am seeing spreads as low as 3.5 and as high as 6. It's a little curious to me. Yea, DET is starting a backup QB that has struggled a little going 0-2 so far. And yea, DET is 28th in sac rate, last in QB hit rate with a horrible secondary and nothing to play for this season playoff wise. And yes TB has been on fire recently going 3-0 and scoring and average of 30 ppg in their last 3... All of these signs point to backing TB...However, TB has the second-worst pass and scoring defense in football and Blough has shown the ability to get the ball to Galloday. Along with Evans and Winston appearing on the injury report, the Buccaneers could also be down linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul and receiver Scotty Miller. You would think this is going to be a shootout given both teams poor secondary and ability to big play throw to their WR1s. However, there appears to be some RLM on the total with over 75% of bets on the over, but the total dropping from 47.5 to 45.5. Very curious! I know it would hurt the DET draft stock, but I feel this is a prime spot for Blough to get his first NFL start/win. I was going to load up on props this game thinking it would be a shoot out, but the RLM has me worried in that department, so I will probably limit my exposure on this game. There are plenty of better spot this weekend. Extra Note: TB has gone 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games as a road favorite... Philadelphia at Washington (+5.5/+6): Well, I am kinda mad at PHL for that comeback on Monday night. :P Speaking of Monday night, Philly is playing on a short week and has injuries to half the team. Alshon is done for the season, Aghalor is Questionable, Howard had to come out of the Monday night game due to cramping. This is a clear low scoring spot so looking at props is questionable. The total has dropped almost 2 points but not though any key numbers yet from 40.5 down to 38.5. The next big number is 37. Honestly this is a crapshoot of a game. Philly is still playing for a playoff spot but they just have such a limited offence to work with. With the limited receiving core (essentially the two TEs) the algo favors the under on the PHL team total of 23.5. Also, it's hard not to look at the home dog catching almost a TD in a game with such a low total... Chicago at Green Bay (-4/-5): Here is a game that could have some serious playoff implications. Chicago is trying to win out just to have a hope that the right teams win and lose for them to make it in. GB is now playing for playoff seating. On a neutral field, I would definitely be favoring the Bears here. However, GB at home is a totally different team. They are 2nd in ypp at home vs. 31st on the road take that stat and add it with CHI has only covered one spread OTR this season...makes it a scary look for CHI. However, the GB defense is one of the worst for how good their record is, conversely, the CHI defense is much better than it's record dictates and the CHI offense looks much better chemistry wise than they did in the first half of the season. As you can tell, my model is leaning CHI here and there is RLM to support. Currently the about 55/60% of the bets are on GB, however the line has moved from an open as high as -7 down to as low as currently -4. Extra Note: Bears: 7-0 SU and ATS when both teams are coming off a home game, and 5-0 SU and ATS in division games with QB Mitchell Tribusky when Chicago owns a winning record … Packers: 1-6 ATS in Last Home Games in division games when coming off a non-division game New England at Cincinnati (+10): We're on to Cincinnati... A week ago, when we were filming there sideline signals... In all fairness does anyone think NE would actually NEEED the Bengals signals to beat them... They came out as a 10 point road favorite! I dont get this one and honestly it feels like media bias to have something to talk about for a week and to blame when the Patriots win another Superbowl. There is some cause to be weary of this spread. Edleman is questionable but I just don't see enough to warrant a stay away. Here's an extra stat found for the Patriots: "The Pats are 41-17 ATS off a loss... and have been money in the bank for bettors in this spot for years as well, going 13-2 ATS in their last 15 vs. teams with losing records (which includes going 4-0 ATS this season) and a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three after having lost two out of their last three SU. The Bengals on the other hand are a money-burning 8-13 ATS in their last 21 at home, including 1-4 already this season." Houston at Tennessee(-3): This line moved quick! It opened as low as -1 but as soon as HOU fell on their face last week and TEN beat OAK, this spread quickly moved to -3. A justified move imo as since the RT insertion, TEN has been the number one offence in the league. They have also tripled their no huddle rate for a more uptempo offense. They will be facing a HOU D that has, quite frankly, SUCKED since JJ watt got hurt. The model likes a lot of Henry in this one (Not surprising he is the KEY to the TEN offense) combined with a ton of PA Passing for TEN going for big plays. The model favor's TEN but as the spread climbs higher it looks like a weaker play. Seattle at Carolina(+6): This is one of the harder games for me to cap this week. On the one hand, its a west coast team traveling East for a 1pm game. On the other hand, its the Seahawks doing it and RW has a great track record in these games. Also, it looks like the Carolina defense is giving up... in their last 5 games, teams have scored on more than half of possessions vs CAR. Penny is out, but Carson is back and ready to go against one of the leagues worst defenses vs the run. On the other side we have CMC who is also facing a shotty defense. I do think this is a potential upset spot. Any time I see a home team plus 6, it always red flags a teaser breaker, however with the "destiny run" that Wilson is on this year I would say the chances are lower than a regular spot. Denver at Kansas City (-10): Another one I am really torn on. KC has beat DEN last 7 times SU and ATS. However, we are still uncertain of the health of PMs hand. He looked great in the first half of the NE game, but then just stopped doing anything in the second half. Overall, he started the season with an 18-1 TD/INT ratio, but since returning from injury has a ratio of 3-2. Also, the DEN pass D is pretty good and has Lock on the other side of the ball playing with high confidence, starting his career 2-0. Don't get me wrong, its totally possible KC wins this game 27-13 or 31-20, something like that...but with the total dropping from an average 47 open to 44.5 now and the spread dropping from 13.5 down to 9.5/10, I think there is still value on Denver. KC will be playing as hard as they can as there is still a chance at the two seed. Still, as I stated, the model is leaning DEN and the points here. Miami at New York Giants (-3.5): Not much to say here. Both defense are shit. Eli's last home game for NY and most likely his last chance to end with a .500 W/L record. I'm gonna just go with the Manning conspiracy and say that the Manning family had a hand in Parker getting his contract extension, he will sit or play poorly, and Eli will get a great game send off at home. No stats. Fade if you dont like conspiracy theories. XD Jacksonville at Oakland (-6.5): Another big line movement. Opened at 4.5, is up to mostly 6.5. Last week the Jaguars, (31st) in run D, lost their best linebacker and leading tackler in Myles Jack. This week they lost another linebacker in Quincy Williams who is the fourth linebacker that Jacksonville has lost this season. This Sunday should be a great day for Josh Jacobs who only needs 246 yards to break Saquan's rookie-of-the-year mark of 1,307 yards. Even if Jacobs is hurt, DeAndre Washington, who filled in nicely last week, will get the chance to carve up the Jaguars. I do think that this is a good look for the over. Both defenses suck the only deterrent here is DJ Chark the shark might be out for this one, hurting JAX chances at keeping up. Cleveland at Arizona (+3): This is another curious spot for me. The Browns are pretty much done for the season in regards to playoff chances. Theoretically they could win out but like the Bears they would need a ton of help, and a win over the Ravens. They do face an ARZ team that is horrible against the pass and has been a money loser for most of the season at home. The algo doesn't have a definite lean here, but as the points rise, the AZ ml looks tempting. This game also has the potential for a big props game as CLE has very good WCB match ups. Minnesota at Los Angeles Chargers (+1.5): Some Serious RLM in this one. Almost 70% of bets on MIN yet the line has gone from a -3 open to -1/-1.5 in most spots. This is actually really weird. MIN has almost everyone healthy again, Theilin, Diggs...both back. LAC stadium as we know has almost no HFA...w.t.f. Also, this game missed out on the flex to the night game which went to BUF/PIT... Can you say, " The fix is in" All statistics point to MIN picking up an easy win. Then why is the line dropping? Well, lets dive deeper into the stats...
One last piece of information that makes the Chargers one of the BEST SPOTS TO TEASE this week :
Atlanta at San Francisco (-10.5): The 49ers played a spectacular game last week to get a win over the Saints. This puts them in the hunt to get the top seed in the NFC. However, their injury list is growing at a fast rate at the wrong time. They’re missing bodies at receiver, on the defensive line, on the offensive line (starting center Weston Richburg on IR) and in the secondary, where Richard Sherman, K’Waun Williams, and safety Jaquiski Tartt are out or questionable heading into Sunday. Since the bye week, Atlanta is 3-2 SU and ATS after 1-7 start. With all the injuries to SF here, I can easily see a backdoor cover from ATL. Hell, San Fran's final two games of the season are against divisional opponents (SEA and LAR) they might get caught resting and looking here and be in line for a surprise upset! XD LA Rams at Dallas (+1): How did this game not get flexed into the night spot...? Is it because Philly is going to lose to Washington and this game means nothing for Dallas? I can't imagine if Philly gets a win here that Jerry Jones wouldn't want Americas team to not be in the spotlight when they are playing for a playoff chance... Anyway, almost 80% of the tickets are on the Rams, and the line has moved heavily from -4 Dallas to -1/1.5 LAR. If the Rams win out, they can almost control their destiny with a 96% chance of making the playoffs. There defense is better. Vander esch is still out for Dallas but Sean Lee may be good to go in this one. The Rams have been trying to get back to basics with Gurley over the last few weeks, and the Cowboys have been gashed in the run game so look for LA to continue with that strategy. Depending on how well Dak can move the ball against this Rams D, this game has the potential for a high scoring affair. The only thing that really worries me is with 80% of the tickets on LA and the line has yet to get up to -3, it looks as if the books dont want to give Dallas too many points. Maybe Dallas is actually the play here? Honestly, I think the best spot in this one is another teaser. The over looks prime and either side teased above 6/7 looks very attractive. Buffalo at Pittsburgh (-1): Finally we get to the game that the NFL decided to flex into Sunday Primetime. Currently 70-80% of bets are on Buffalo and the spread has moved from 2.5 down to 1, but that isn't through any key numbers. Both teams have been great defensively and PIT sees the return of their starting RB. This has the makings of a tough, low scoring, grind it out type game. We say this every week it seems, but it's going to be a big test for Josh Allen to see if the Bills are truly a playoff contender or just had an easy schedule. So far he has done well winning 5 of 6 on the road this season with 3 of their 4 highest scoring games OTR. However, they will be facing a Steeler D that has been legit since the add of Fitzpatrick. Over the last 4 games(all wins) the Steelers are giving up only 16 ppg. Again, this game looks good for a tease. Both sides too in a low scoring grind it out game that looks to be decided by 1 score or less. Singles 110-110-3 (+22.13u)
This is a separate box I am making for Borgata online bets. They decided to give me 10u for no reason. The only downside is they have a 6x rollover before I can take the winnings. Because of this I will try for parlays to hit more then 6x the bonus. None of the losses count against us, and none of the winnings count for us until I have rolled over 6x. Borgata Online
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-12 (-14.04u)
Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-12 (-6u)
Thanks for reading. Good luck to all! :D |
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/fva8iuunm7641.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=609fe6329f6a60fd2f01e236096dd6c6677f07de Saturday Recap Singles: 1-3 (-2.1u) Little rough here, HOU took a lead with defense so there offense wasnt needed much. Gurly had 15 carrys and 2 TDs, but only mustered 50 yards. Perriman went offffff. Parlay: 1-1 (+3.6u) That was decent. Was nice to free roll a win after the Pats game, would have been nicer if the Rams could play defense on third and long when you know Jimmy G is looking only deep over the middle....twice in the same drive lol BBDLS: 0-1 (-0.7u) Rough, felt pretty confident about this one if the Rams covered. Still have one live though! :D SBBDLS: 0-1 (-0.5u) Man, I picked everything right on the card today, got HOU under, Rams +6, but both my HOU -3 and NE -7 were pushes, and in this contest a push is a loss. I might try again Today. Teasers: 1-0 (+1u) Hit the one posted and I put a big one in at the Ocean. It is still live. I will post it at the bottom in the teaser section. Sunday Games New Orleans at Tennessee (+2.5): Both teams come into this game looking for a win. NO has clinched their division, but is still looking for a number one seed in the playoffs. TEN is looking for the upset here to set up a huge rematch vs the Texans in W17. My algo actually has this pretty close to a PK with TEN favored after hfa is added. It will be very interesting to see how TEN handles the pressure of playing to stay alive in the playoffs. One huge note is the Saints average 420 total ypg at home but only 311 on the road. Brees is always a little more comfortable in his dome and there is predicted rain on Sunday in TEN. I'd say the worse the weather is, the more I lean TEN and the under. NY Giants at Washington (-2): A divisional match up here with no playoff implications but some draft order implications. NY is fresh off a Manning led home win vs. the Dolphins. Washington is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 and was on track to be 4-0 except some last second weirdness lead to philly covering. Upon writing this, it looks like Jones is going to be back at QB for NY. Unfortunately for the Giants, he has been very fumble prone this year and the WAS pass rush is quietly tied for 7th in sacks this season. If there is a spot for NY to attack, it would be the slot as that is WAS's biggest leak defensively. If Jones returns, I will be looking in the direction of Tate who has been quiet since Jones sat. With two bad teams not playing for the post season, anything is possible, but currently the algo is leaning WAS. Pittsburgh at NY Jets (+3): Everyone is talking about a revenge game for Bell. I see it as the opposite. A revenge game for the Steelers to show Bell this game is a team effort. Honestly this is one of the tougher picks for me. The algo has PIT -1. What makes these games that involve the bottom 10 teams in the league difficult to cap is you just don't know if they want to win. Every win hurts their draft stock for next season so yea, a win is nice, but it doesn't benefit the team except a day of feel good. Obviously I want to side with a Steeler defense that has been keeping them in the playoff hunt allowing 21 points or less in each of the last six games. ...But who knows if duck is going to flop or fly like an Eagle.... With such a low total, there's no props except defensive that I would look at. As for a side, I will probably fade this game. Cincinnati at Miami (+1): This game features another two teams high up in the draft order. It opened as MIA -3 but has quickly moved to the other side and sits at CIN -1. My algo leans Cincy just based on the fact that their defense is slightly better and offensively they just have more options. ALL CIN WRs and RBs have a favorable match up here but I would say Mixon is the safest option as taking the RB takes the risk of Dalton not being able to get it to his receivers. As for MIA, they only player I have been looking at for them is DeVante Parker. Carolina at Indianapolis (-6.5): Both teams are coming off losses and neither team has a chance to make the playoffs. Carolina will be starting a new QB. How can you cap that? This is a prime game to either ride the ml of the dog or the points on the favorite. TY Hilton came back last week against the Saints but found no room to make anything happen. This week he draws a very weak Carolina secondary. Also, Mack has been quiet for the last few games but also has a very good match up in this game. CMC is only like 120 Rec yards away from having a 1k and 1k season. With a new starting QB and only 2 games to hit the record and not much else for the "team" to play for...I will be looking for CMC to do some work. Baltimore at Cleveland (+10): This game opened at 7 and has since moved up to 10. Cleveland is out of the playoffs and essentially playing for pride. Baltimore has clinched their division, a playoff spot, and now plays for the number one seed in the post season. Baltimore hasn't lost since the played CLE in week 4. Wouldn't it be crazy if Baltimore had this crazy good season but somehow got swept by CLE in the regular season? It would almost validate all of CLE's struggles this season. It probably won't happen with as bad as CLE has been vs. the run, especially since losing Myles Garret but it's an interesting thought. Jacksonville at Atlanta (-7): This is another one of those anything can happen games. Last week the Falcon's showed life by upsetting the 49ers. They have been much better defensively since their bye week and it show going 4-2. Jacksonville flamed out of the playoffs after putting Foles back into the lineup, but as soon as they benched him for the Mustache, they won again. However, in non conference games since 2015 ATL is 5-23 ATS. and vs. the AFC since 2017....0-11 ATS. So as hard as it may be, I am going to once again ride with the Stache and his number one target, Chark. Detroit at Denver (-6.5): Both of these teams coming off brutal losses. DET was crushed at home by Winston and it looks like they have resigned to trying to get the best draft pick. DEN was crushed in a snow game in KC but haven't given up, upsetting HOU the week before. The only negative I see for DEN players is the timing of the game. They have been on the road for the last 4 games and now come home to play on Christmas week. Hopefully they can handle business because they have the wonderful opportunity to go up against a DET secondary that hasn't won a game since October. Oakland at LA Chargers (-6.5): Both 4pm games feature losing teams coming off disappointing losses. OAK lost their final home game in OAK ever to the Mustache led Jags and the Chargers lost their last game in a home blowout loss to MIN. Neither team has playoff hopes and a win only hurts their draft stock. The algo is favoring the Chargers as both teams have an offense with potential, but the LAC have clear advantage on the defensive side of the ball. However, as neither teams could use a win as much as a loss, this is another low confidence lean, not a smash. Dallas at Philadelphia (+1.5): DUN DUN DUNNNNN. The playoffs are here! These two teams face off in what is essentially a game for the NFC East division title, and a trip to the playoffs. Both teams are coming off wins. DAL dismantled the Rams last week in an impressive showing, while PHL struggled against WAS but pulled it out in the end. Philly has one of the better run defenses in the league, but Zeek just seems to crush the Eagles, "Elliott has never lost to the Eagles; he’s 5-0. Since 2016, the Eagles are 2-5 against Dallas and their only two wins have come without Elliott in the lineup. In five career games against the Eagles, Elliott has 815 yards from scrimmage (163 per game) and three touchdowns " Should be interesting to see which continues. The Eagles good run game? Or Zeke's Eagle Dominance? Arizona at Seattle (-9.5): Last of the mid day games. A divisional match up that means nothing for AZ but one that SEA would love to book in the W column as they are still fighting for playoff seeding. Last time these two teams played SEA had an EZ W, But, that was one of the only games that SEA has played that didnt end within 1 score. It's already 1130 today so I don't have time to do the in depth analysis for every game today, but the algo is leaning on AZ and a high scoring game here. If I have time today I will update this analysis with which props I am taking, currently none because I want to get the early picks posted but tune back in later in the day to see if this gets update with props for this game. Kansas City at Chicago (+6.5): Chicago is out of the playoffs with that loss to GB last week. KC is starting to get hot at the right time. Chi is 2-0 ATS as a home dog this year, but I cant step in front of the KC train. Their team stock went way down after the losses and PM injury and everyone forgot about them. Now it seems PM is back to his last season form with almost full hand strength. Along with his progression, the KC defense has really stepped up in the last few weeks. Right now with the number under +7, the algo is leaning with the favorite. Singles 123-128-3 (+18.8u)
I will update more bets and analysis for the later games as the day goes on. I just want to put these picks out with now with enough time for everyone to read them. Thanks for reading. Good luck to all! :D |
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/b88yp5srv9z31.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=40ca6e2ece3b36c915e55bf033c2c18ebab3ff4f Thursday Night Recap Singles: 2-2 (-0.02u) Soooo close! Personally I think the OBJ conspiracy was real. He had 10 targets (the most) and almost scored the first TD on their first drive. Not only did his TD get reviewed and overturned but soon after, Juju was taken out of the game. On to the next one! Parlay: 0-0 (0u) None BBDLS: 0-0 (0u) Nothing of note here. We put in a free bet and it is still live, but there are much harder games to clear on this one. Lets ride the wave! SBBDLS: 0-0 (0u) None Teasers: 0-0 (0u) None Sunday Games Dallas @ Detroit (-7): This weeks games opens up with a 1pm slate of games that are dooseys. Almost every one of these games feels like the favorite should win but they all have a reasonable percentage of underdog upsets. With Stafford playing the algo predicts this one 27-24 Dallas. But with no Stafford this game is going to rely on the Lions D and their backup QB. The Lions run d allows 4.6 ypc (22nd) and 130 ypg (26th). While their pass D averages giving up 272 ypg (27th) and a 100 passer rating (23rd). The Cowboys passing offense is 3rd in ypg, 4th in ypc, and 1st in ypa 1st. Last week Zeek had a horrible game vs min going 20 rushes for only 47 yards at 2.4 ypc... but he is still top 10 in rush yards with 78 per game. Some interesting stats to go with the Dallas run game:
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+5): Just as the Dallas game, this game looks like it should be a win for the favorite just based upon the offense for the favorite vs the defense of the dog. However, there are definitely scenarios that have Tampa Bay coming away with an upset. The algo has this one as NO -2. Curiously it look-ahead around -7 and has moved down to settle in around 5. This is probably due to the fact the Saints were embarrassed last week by the Falcons. They came out of the bye with 0 energy and the Falcons took advantage. TB was able to pull through last week despite losing the turnover battle and trailing in the fourth. Tampa Bay's ability to protect the ball on offense and force a turnover on defense will be the key for a victory. "They’re 2-12 in games with 0 takeaways. When they force a takeaway, they’re 22-27. When they record exactly one takeaway, they’re 5-16. When they record exactly two, they’re 5-10. Three, as it turns out, is the magic number. When they record at least three, they’re 12-1. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, New Orleans almost never commits three turnovers in a game. In fact, the Saints haven’t done so since 2017, and they haven’t committed two in any game this season." Uncharacteristically, Brees was sacked 6 times last week. Now he is going against Shaquile Barret this week who has 11.5 sacks (1st). The Saints do have Kamara back, but the TB rush D is tops allowing only 78 ypg (1st) and 3.4 ypc (3rd). Brees will likely look to the air as Thomas is on fire, averaging over 100 ypg, and the Tampa Bay pass D ranks bottom of the league giving up an average 299 ypg (league worst) and an average 100 passer rating (24th). In terms of injuries, almost everyone is a go. The only notable injury is Saints Marshon Lattimore. He has been ruled out and this should really add to the TB abuse of the deep ball. The algo does favor the Saints to win, but I don't think I can lay the points on this one. Fun Fact: NFC South foes Tampa Bay and New Orleans have split their annual series every season since Jameis Winston entered the NFL. NO won the first meeting. Atlanta at Carolina (-5): My algo has this coming out at Carolina -7. I understand the movement as Atlanta got a huge upset last Sunday and Carolina lost by 2 inches. Before we jump into the stats, I think the most important information for this game is Carolina’s starting tackles, Dennis Daley and Greg Little are both questionable for the game. If they play, I see Kyle Allen having time to throw, CMC having holes to run through, and little resistance from an ATL secondary that ranks near the bottom in everything. However, if those tackles are out, ATL may be able to repeat last weeks performance (6 sacks and 11 QB hits) and give themselves opportunity at another big divisional upset. Other injuries to note: The Falcons will be without tight end Austin Hooper, their receptions (56) and receiving touchdown (six) leader who is out with an MCL sprain. The Panthers will be without defensive back Ross Cockrell (quad), who has played a big role in a variety of positions in the secondary. But, for the Panthers, cornerback James Bradberry back. I am leaning towards Carolina here and while the focus will be on CMC, I think the edge can be found with the WR's in this one. Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-2.5): Whoa. Two completely different QBs than the previous week for both teams. It looks as if Brissett is back for the Colts, and after 9 weeks with no BDN, Nick Foals returns. My algo has this game at 22-22 with some HFA to be added in for Indy. This looks like what Vegas got too because they made the spread -3 (hfa on a pk) and the total around 44. Looks like they don't know how to handle the QB change and decided to let the market dictate the price. The Jags are coming off a bye and see the return of wide receiver Dede Westbrook (neck), cornerback D.J. Hayden (neck) and linebacker Quincy Williams (hamstring). Both teams have rush defenses that rank in the bottom of the league, but on the flip side, both teams have rushing offenses that are pretty good. With Jax having the clear edge here. A key stat to note for the Jax rush defense is they are 4-0 when holding opponents under 100 yards rushing...but they are 0-5 when they dont. Without TY Hilton again this week to help stretch the field, I feel like JAX will be able to stack the box and keep the rush yards for IND to a minimum. Denver at Minnesota (-10): This is another game where I dont think Vegas knows how to cap it. My algo came out with 15-25 MIN. They Vegas spread is -10 with a total of 40. It seems they know the public will like MIN just seeing them come off a win on prime time. As you have probably guessed, my gut leans DEN as I took them on Thursday in my BBDLS parlay. Let's look into the game to see what else is going on. First, we see Denver coming off a bye. Yet another QB named with the last name Allen hopped into the NFL, replacing the injured Joe Flacco and he was 12-of-20 passing for 193 yards and two touchdowns while beating the Cleveland Browns in his first career start. Then, he went into a bye week, giving him double time to get in sync with the plays and the receivers. You know what, there are stats that say the Vikings offense is legit, and the Broncos D is legit. They both have decent running games and run defenses. I'd say the key here is if Min can pressure the young QB. If they can...its a wrap. If they can't? I see Denver with an easy cover and possibly an upset. NY Jets at Washington (-2.5) This is a curious coin flip of two bottom of the barrel teams this year. The Jets are coming of a win and the Redskins are coming off a bye. This feels like an under game. My algo has this at 20-20 but there is no adjustment for Haskins yet. He has had an extra week to prepare, but the Redskins tend to rely on AP to generate some running game. He will be going against a Jets run D that is L.E.G.I.T. giving up only 3ypc (best in the league) and 82 ypg (2nd). The Redskins run game will an added boost in Guice who will be returning. Honestly, all the numbers lean Jets favor. However... everywhere I look 70-75% of the bets are on the Jets...and the number keeps pushing in their favor. This is usually a big red flag to take the opposite of the majority! Buffalo at Miami (+6.5): My algo has this 22-20 Buffalo. This is an interesting rematch of a divisional battle. This time though Frank Gore will be returning home to battle his old team in front of his family. Also Jordan Phillips, Bills defensive tackle is returning to where he was originally drafted. He is having a monster year, so watch out! Looking at the Bills offense, it has been pretty mediocre. However, it will be facing a Dolphins defense that ranks bottom in almost everything. ( 31st in points allowed, 29th in total yards, and 30th in sacks per attempt ) Im sure the Bills would like to see their RBs get it going in this match up, but the MIA run d hasn't been that bad. If you take out the games against Baltimore and Dallas (they gave up 500 rush yards in those two combined) then they only averaging giving up 116 per game. If they can hold Buffalo under 100 yards, the potential for an upset exists. The Bills have only ONE win in the 14 games where they failed to rush for at least 100 yards since Sean McDermott took over as coach. They had only 84 last week in Cleveland. Houston at Baltimore (-4.5): Oooo, this is probably going to be my favorite game of the 1pms. I rarely watch the games, but I am excited to see these teams match up. My algo has this game Bal -4.5. Lining right up with the Vegas spread. Will Fuller has been ruled out for HOU. I dont have analysis for this because Baltimore should be leading in most if not all categories. But I am going to give my gut play here and its ride with the Texans. No analysis, just gut. Arizona at San Fransico (-9.5) Another divisional rematch. This one is interesting because it has seen a pretty big line movement. It opened in most places as high as -14. But has moved to settle around 9.5/10. My algo actually has this as SF -12.5, however that doesn't account for any injuries...of which the 49ers seem to have in spades. The Niners will be without running back Matt Breida, Joe Staley, and kicker Robbie Gould. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair has been ruled out as he has not cleared the concussion protocol. Defensive lineman D.J. Jones has a groin injury that will sideline him this week. Emmanuel Sanders is hurt but looks to play and Kittle is listed as doubtful but who knows, we saw him dominate the last game vs AZ after his knee got reversed. Honestly, almost every article I read said the same thing. 49ers are mad injured, played 5 quarters on Monday and lost, and now play a divisional opponent on a short week that they only beat by 3 points just 2 weeks ago, bet the Cards to cover and possibly upset. That was my original train of thought too. Then I looked at the public betting percentages. Everywhere you look, 2 out of 3 spread tickets are on the Cards with some places over 70%. Yet the line has had a ton of trouble breaking 10 and with all that love for AZ you'd think it would drop to 7.5/8.5. Because of this, it appears the edge may actually be with the home team to win a blowout. Should be interesting to see what happens! New England @ Philadelphia (+4.5): An interesting match up here. My algo has this 24-21 NE. Both teams are coming off a bye with limited injuries. The Pats will be without safety Chung, and the Eagles will be without darren sproles, alshon jeffery and deshean jackson. Jordan Mathews is questionable, but Ajayi was signed his week to help with RB depth. What makes this pick really hard is even with all these injuries to the Eagles and Bellichek's after a bye win percentage, AND 80% of the picks being on NE...the line has only moved a point, a point and a half a most. How big are the bets on the Eagles right now to keep the line from ballooning? The Eagles run d is legit, but their secondary is still crap. The Pats D was exposed last week but that was vs an MVP caliber QB lead offense. How has this line not moved?! I want to bet the Pats so bad, but there is this thread pulling at me to take the Eagles. Choose with care here boys. Cincinatti @ Oakland (-11.5): There isn't much to say here. Cincy is winless and starting a backup QB that was destroyed last week. Oakland has some energy. They fought through a grueling road schedule and now get some rest at home. But, 11.5 points for an OAK team this year just seems like too much. And 11.5 for a cincy team with a back up QB on the road when he just lost by 40 at home...cant do it. The algo has this 24-18 OAK but thats not adjusted for the new QB. Honestly I dont have an adjustment for him because I dont know who he is! I am riding OAK to win in some parlays but points are tough. Knock on wood if you're with me. :D Chicago @ LA Rams(-6): Last game of the day. Prime time NFC match up. While both of these teams are technically still live for a wild card spot, I don't think either will realistically make it. The Rams have a shot if they can win here AND win vs Dallas and Seattle but honestly I dont see that happening this year. Crazy enough, my algo has this game 21-20 Bears... I think if Montgomery is a go for CHI this game is much tighter. But if he sits, I dont see the offense for the Bears having as much rhythm. Monday Night Kansas City vs LA Chargers (+4): I dont normally add the Monday game into these write ups, but since I will have this team in my parlays and teasers, I decided to add it. I am betting this for only one piece of info I heard. (My algo actually likes the opposite side here) This game is in Mexico City. The elevation there is higher than Denver. The Chargers spent all week practicing in Denver to get their bodies acclimated to the elevation. Kansas City has stayed home. With as bad as the KC defense is, the elevation factor, and 4 points...I will be siding with old man Rivers to 2nd half comeback and cover. (and possibly win!) Note: We have approx 17u in Bonus money from Refer-A-Friend Bonus. Also, Borgata Sportsbook emailed me this week and offered me 10u in free bets just because I made an account there a year ago and never played. Unlike alllll the other sites in NJ, it does have a rollover. It is 6x, so I will use these free bets on only parlays that way if I hit one, I will have extra funds to hit the rollover without playing it for many weeks. Going really basic this week. Mostly spreads. Singles 73-72-2 (+26.78u)
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